The 45Q tax credit expansion for Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage, passed as part of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, dramatically increases the expected cost to taxpayers without adequate oversight or transparency to ensure fiscal integrity or program efficacy. Unlike federal grants, loans, and some tax subsidies, the cost of 45Q to taxpayers is uncapped. And this cost could be massive.
Independent analyses suggest tax subsidies could average $46 billion per year—more than 140 times the original official projections. Total costs could reach as high as $835 billion by 2042; and were industry-proposed expansions implemented, the taxpayer cost could surge above $2 trillion. With lax oversight, little transparency, and most credits funding enhanced oil recovery rather than true carbon reduction, the risks to taxpayers are enormous. This report examines the 45Q program’s potential fiscal impacts and the urgent need for reform of this flawed federal subsidy.
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