fossil fuel subsidies

Two important publications on fossil fuel subsidies were released last week, though covering quite different aspects of the problem.  The first, by Oil Change International in Washington, DC, updated information on US subsidies to fossil fuels to 2013.  Their work captures the subsidy escalation that has occurred following surging domestic production of oil and gas in recent years.  The second, produced for the Global Subsidies Initiative in Geneva and WWF Russia, provides two case studies of Russian gas projects in the Arctic Circle.  This is an environmentally sensitive region of the world that, ironically, is facing greatly increased pressure for hydrocarbon extraction as the climate warms.

Cashing in on All of the Above: 
U.S. Fossil Fuel Production Subsidies Under Obama

by Shakuntala Makhijani (Oil Change International)

Report Highlights

  • Growth in domestic production has resulted in sharp (up 45% since 2009) growth in federal subsidies to oil and gas as well.
  • Subsidies to fossil fuel exploration and production in 2013 were $21.6 billion.  Of this, state-level subsidies comprised $3.1 billion -- though not every state has been analyzed yet.
  • Subsidies to fossil fuel consumption exceeded $11.2 billion for 2013, of which $2.2 billion was at the state level.
  • The study provides an updated literature review of subsidy values related to oil defense and fossil fuel-related externalities, though does not include these large values in its reported totals.
  • A tally of fossil-fuel-related project finance through US export credit agencies (ECAs) also highlights that even in a world of increased concern over global warming, the ECAs continue to provide subsidized credit and insurance to the fossil fuel sector.


Government Support to Upstream Oil & Gas in Russia: 
How Subsidies Influence the Yamal LNG and Prirazlomnoe Projects

by Lars Petter Lunden and Daniel Fjaertoft

I wrote about the rush to develop Arctic oil and gas reserves back in October 2012 (Russian Yamal Peninsula LNG Project:  Tracking subsidies to Arctic destruction), and unfortunately the situation does not seem to have improved in the years since. 

Not surprisingly, I was delighted when the Global Subsidies Initiative, in conjunction with WWF Russia, decided to fund some detailed work on the issue -- including the Yamal LNG project.  Their analysis is a first step in calling attention to some very complicated market dynamics associated with government-led regional development of natural resources in environmentally-sensitive regions. 

For these types of projects, individual subsidy line items are but a starting point.  It is vitally important as well to look at the broad set of policies, including less direct ones such as roadbuilding or transport links, and assess the degree to they shift so many of the development risks from the private to the public sector that they "tame" the high risk regions for profitable development.  This shift is relevant not only for this project, but for many others that follow.  It is the full number of projects, after all, that convert pristine ecosystems into industrial waste lands. 

Often, this "taming" actually requires enormous public financial support per benefit created -- though the costs are masked, hidden, and shifted in all sorts of clever ways.  When this dynamic of public intervention occurs in areas of poverty or urban blight, we normally applaud the efforts as necessary and important development that are critical to "turn an area around."  When the behavior occurs in environmentally sensitive regions such as the Arctic, the trade-offs and reactions are (indeed, must be) quite different. 

Even if there are poverty-elements to these regional support strategies (as there often are with developing world mining projects, for example), the risk shifting remains problematic.  The environmental damage is often irreversible, and the selection of a natural resource-intensive pathway can represent a false choice.  Quite often there are multiple development path options for job creation or regional improvement -- some of which can offer similar social gains at a much lower environmental cost.

Report Highlights

  • Viability dependent on government support.  Both the Yamal and the Prirazlomnoe projects would not have been viable without some of the government support analyzed.  This conclusion was reached even with some important gaps in the types of subsidies the research team was able to quantify.  For example, they were not able to assess preferential credit terms for some important financing agreements, or evaluate the level to which insurance and indemnification requirements were adequate and privately funded.  Inclusion of missing subsidies would have further worsened the returns.
    The authors frame this issue as follows in relation to the Yamal project:

The Yamal LNG project seems marginal from an economical point of view, i.e., the project shows small positive economic returns pre-tax, and marginally negative economics pre-tax if the project would have to pay all infrastructure investments. By paying for a large share of infrastructure investments, the government has
granted the owners of Yamal LNG a considerable subsidy.

In the meantime, proponents of Yamal LNG would claim there are strategic reasons for developing this project. Yamal LNG will be Russia’s first LNG project for west and east-facing markets as well as Russia’s first non-Gazprom gas export project. Moreover, it will generate traffic for the Northern Sea Route and pay for and utilize icebreaker services. In addition, Yamal LNG will contribute to the development of the Arctic region,which some regard as a benefit per se (p. 34).

  • Viability sensitive to discount rate assumptions; these may be even higher than assumed.  The profitability of the projects is sensitive to which rate of return is assumed appropriate for investment in the projects.1   It is notable (though not explicitly stated) that the appropriate rate of return is, in itself, influenced by the degree and type of government involvement with the projects. 
  • Pattern of regional support evaluated at a first level; further analysis would be quite useful.  As noted above, a critical aspect of reviewing subsidies to “remote” resources (either geographically or technologically) is how a pattern of government support alters not only a single project, but the development trends in an entire regions.  Canadian subsidies to the tar sands in Alberta is a good example of this; or US hydro dams and the expansion of agriculture in parts of the US West.  To the extent that Russian infrastructure, services, and subsidies are not only supporting Yamal, but also derisking other investments in fossil fuel development in the Arctic that would previously have been unprofitable, the subsidies both reduce the breakeven rate of return needed for Yamal and Prirazlomnoe to go forward, and accelerate development of other fields in the area. The GSI/WWF paper, by looking at subsidies to infrastructure to the fields, opens debate on this critical issue.  Much more research is needed.
  • Tax breaks seem to lack an underlying strategy.  Tax breaks to the oil and gas developments evaluated seemed to be granted ad hoc, in some cases apparently to bolster demand at military shipyards, rather than per an underlying set of rules.  This approach normally increases the latitude for more political deals.
  • Employment gains do not look large.  Job creation and development benefits to the local population appears to be fairly limited, given their existing skills and industries, and substantial tenders already underway to foreign firms. 
  • Environmental risks inadequately assessed.  The returns on the projects (even with subsidies) remain moderate, and environmental damages from dredging, spills, or other activities would likely turn those negative.  The authors note that the environmental reviews conducted thus far do not appear to be robust, and that independent reviews anticipate significantly larger environmental risks than have been reflected in the official documents.
  • 1In the paper, the authors assumed a 10% real discount rate for the oil industry, with an additional 2% added to reflect country risk in Russia (page 8). However, the fields examined were not just in Russia, but in the Arctic -- so an even larger rate adjustment might be warranted.
CO legalizes marijuana
CO legalizes marijuana

Colorado's govenor John Hickenloper has estimated that annual sales and excise taxes on the state's legal marijuana market will bring in as much as $134 million in tax and fee revenue next year.  The figure is well above projections, and the Governor and many others in the state are happy.  Hickenloper, as well as CO Senator MIchael Bennet, both hail from Wesleyan University, my alma mater and the land of West Co. and Zonker Harris Day.  From this shared vantage point, it is easy to see how the ability to spin pot into gold, rather than just dodging the smoke clouds, is something to be celebrated.

But while Colorado may be fairly unique in terms of its approach to marijuana laws, it is hardly unique in its embedded subsidies to fossil fuels.  So why link marijuana and energy?  Sure, there is the push to make hemp biofuel (with a logo that probably had the Shell executive suite spinning), but that connection still has some ways to go before it is policy relevant. 

Rather, it is this:  there are important fiscal linkages on the tax and revenue side.  Far too many state officials (well beyond Colorado, and including my home state of Massachusetts) have failed to look at tax exemptions to fossil fuels in their quest for better policy and more state revenues.  They celebrate new sources of tax revenue without looking to see what old subsidies might be in need of review.

Some of Colorado's tax breaks to fossil fuels date back nearly a century; many more are decades old.  Often they were created during times when developing natural resources was paramount, demand-side management was not even a concept, and the environmental costs of fossil fuel extraction could be (and generally were) entirely ignored.  It is not a leap to suggest that maybe the logic that drove the creation of these policies no longer applies to the world we live in now.

Of all states, Colorado ought to be one of the first revisiting this aspect of its tax code.  CO has a very big tourism industry, driven in large part by the state's natural beauty.  And it is the home of the Rocky Mountain Institute, whose founder Amory Lovins has spent his career demonstrating that conservation and energy efficieny are big energy resources, formidable competitors to conventional supply, and often a far more competitive choice to simply producing more and more fossil energy.  It's a shame that these residual tax breaks tip markets in the opposite direction.

1) Money:  eliminating the fossil fuel subsidies will generate more state revenue than the marijuana fees do; and provide environmental gains as well

Exemptions from energy sales and use taxes have been in place for so long that people stop questioning whether they make sense and whether there are less costly ways to meet the objectives for which the exemptions were granted.  Certainly there is a humanitarian benefit and social responsiblity to ensure that the poor stay warm in winter.  But exempting all energy consumers in the state from sales and use taxes is hardly a savvy way to meet that goal.  Ensuring the poor have access to energy services can be far more efficiently achieved through narrowly targeted purchase or efficiency subsidies.  Providing special exemptions to all energy consumers simply weakens the incentives to deploy non-fuel energy resources (such as wind or solar) and to invest in energy efficiency and conservation. 

Knowing the financial trade-offs is an important part of policy change, yet Colorado was one of the last states in the country even to track tax subsidies.  Finally, in January 2013, the state released its first tax expenditure budget.  This is a very important step forward, though unfortunately came just a bit too late to assist in our review of CO fossil fuel subsidies for OECD.  The tax expenditure report, and the accounting systems behind it, should help Colorado invest its tax breaks more effectively going forward.

Marijuana taxes and fees, 2014:  $134m
CO tax breaks to fossil fuels, 2011:  $564m

The revenue cost of the state's fossil fuel subsidies is big, as shown in the table below.  While pot proceeds are expected to bring in as much as $134 million, fossil fuel subsidies cost the state Treasury more than $560 million in 2011 -- four times as much.  And that doesn't even include the increasing number of oil and gas-related Master Limited Partnerships that are bypassing not only federal corporate income taxes, but state corporate income taxes as well.  MLPs tend not to show up in tax subsidy accounting at all, though the tax-favored corporate form is dominated by firms in the fossil fuel sector.

2) Only net tax receipts, after offsetting cost increases, represent a gain to the state

There are some lessons from Colorado's tax policy with respect to fossil fuels that may be useful in evaluating the marijuana tax windfall as well.  A central one is not to focus on the top-line number of gross tax collections.  Tax revenues from pot need to be evaluated on a net, not a gross, basis because Colorado has a history of earmarking tax revenues to support industry-related activities rather than general state spending.  In some cases, they levy one tax, but then credit that amount back against another.

An interesting example is with the Colorado ad valorem tax on oil and gas, which is basically a severance tax.  For some reason, they decided it would be a good idea to allow property taxes on oil and gas operations to be credited against state severance taxes.1 The result has been to reduce the actual severance taxes paid into state coffers almost to zero.

With the marijuana taxes, the Governor has allocated much of the revenue to drug-related expenditures (youth use prevention, substance abuse treatment).  These are important programs and address what is a significant challenge in many states.  But to the extent the problems are made worse by the increased availability of marijuana, the reported contribution that marijuana taxes make to the core functions of running the state should be reduced accordingly.

3) Even pot markets will become more competitive, constraining tax receipts

Even with marijuana sales, one should not assume the boom times will continue indefinitely.  While the next few years may generate increased pot tax receipts due to the novelty of the policy and the lack of competitors, this is unlikely to last.  As with the early states to adopt casino gambling, there is an initial surge of activity and associated tax revenues.  However, as more and more states enter the market, the industry becomes more price-competitive and sales are spread amongst more taxing jurisdictions.  Although lower prices may prop up demand to some degree, tax take per transaction is still likely to fall with prices; and any expanded use from lower prices will be likely to drive up the social costs to which the pot tax proceeds need to be directed.  Both factors suggest net tax revenues from the industry are likely to be flat or decline over time.

If the long-term net tax from marijuana sales is subject to a variety of forces that will keep it relatively low, the benefits of fossil fuel subsidy reform look even better in comparison.  The table below highlights places to start.  A PDF version of the table is available here.

 

Colorado tax breaks to fossil fuels greatly exceed new revenues from marijuana sales

CO Expend. ID,
Statute Citation

Year Enacted

Tax Expenditure Description

2009

Revenue Impact

2011

Revenue Impact

 

Comments

Fuel Excise Taxes

3.01
§39-27-102(1)(b)

1933

Two percent allowance

 

 

$11,324,000

$11,521,000

Covers administrative costs of the taxes and losses during transfers.  Both should be lower today than when provision was first implemented 81 years ago, offering space for reform.

3.02

§39-27-102.5

1979

Dyed diesel fuel

$41,001,000

$42,233,000

Primarily associated with exemptions for home heating oil. 

3.03
§39-27-103(2)

1933

Government agencies fuel tax exemption

$6,974,000

$6,821,000

Motor fuel excise taxes around the US mostly support road construction and maintenance.  Government vehicles are using these systems, but not paying into them.  Many states have this issue.

3.04
§39-27-103(3)(a)

1933

Gasoline and special fuel tax exemptions

$7,683,000

$10,948,000

While exempt uses are often off-road (waterways, ag use, rails, or aviation), many of these uses also require government oversight or infrastructure.  Federal taxes are not waived for airplane and boat consumers, but support related infrastructure rather than highways.

Sales and Use Tax Exemptions 1/

6.08
§39-26-102(21)

1937

Energy used for industrial, manufacturing, and similar purposes

$14,985,000

N/A

Temporary repeal in effect for 2011.  Tax exemption reduces incentives to invest in efficiency and conservation.

6.09
§39-26-102(21)

1982

Gas and electric services when deemed a wholesale sale

2/

2/

Distortionary effect should be small if fuels are taxed at point of final consumption.  However, exemption includes fuels used in power sector, so disadvantages no-fuel renewables (e.g., wind, solar).  CO should be able to generate a revenue impact estimate for next report.

6.42
§39-26-715(1)(a)(I)

1935

Gasoline and special fuel

$181,780,000

$276,632,000

Many states have both sales and excise taxes on fuels.  Sales taxes can rise with fuel prices and inflation, a big political challenge for excise taxes.  Excise taxes also usually absorbed entirely on related infrastructure (i.e., roads), leaving no funds to contribute to general state needs.

6.43
§39-26-715(1)(a)(II)

1979

Fuel for residential heat, light, and power

$91,214,000

$99,717,000

Most things people buy incur sales taxes.  This exemption places conservation and efficiency at a disadvantage to polluting fuels in meeting consumer demand for energy services.

1/ All expenditures in this category are estimates.
2/ Not available.

3/ Only available as a refund of sales tax paid if the total general fund for a particular fiscal year will be sufficient to increase the total general fund appropriations by 6% over such appropriations for the previous fiscal year.

4/ Amount combined with another exemption.
5/ Non-disclosable.

Severance Tax Exemptions, Credits, and Deductions

7.01
39-29-102(3)(a)

1985

Deduction for oil and gas transportation costs

1/

1/

CO ought to be able to estimate tax losses here.  All extraction should incur severance taxes, regardless of whether producers use it onsite or sell it.

7.02
39-29-102(3)(a)

1985

Deduction for oil and gas processing and manufac- turing costs

 

 

1/

 

 

1/

Same as above.

7.03
39-29-102(4)(a)

1977

Oil shale equipment and machinery deduction

$0

$0

Supports kerogen deposits (currently uneconomic), not fracked shale.  No activity. 

7.04
39-29-102(4)(b)

1977

Oil shale fragmenting, crushing, conveying, beneficiating, pyrolysis, retorting, refining, and transporting deductions

 

 

$0

 

 

$0

No activity. See above.

7.05
39-29-102(4)(c)

1977

Oil shale royalty payment deduction

$0

$0

No activity.  See above.

7.09
39-29-105(1)(b)

1977

Deduction for oil and gas stripper well

production

 

1/

 

1/

Small gas and oil wells are entirely exempt from severance taxes.  Not sure why CO has no data on this.

7.10
39-29-105(2)(a)

1977

Oil and gas ad valorem credit

$191,073,000

$101,764,000

Most of property taxes paid to county and local governments can be credited against state severance taxes.  This eliminates most of the state liability, resulting in resources effectively being given away.

7.11
39-29-106(2)(b)

1977

Tax exempt coal tonnage

$6,756,000

$7,375,000

First 300,000 tons of any type of coal produced each quarter pays no severance tax.

7.12
39-29-106(3)

1977

Underground coal production credit

$5,705,000

$6,293,000

Goal is to support higher cost coal sites.  Given the carbon footprint and environmental damage, CO ought to be able to find better job creation venues.

7.13
39-29-106(4)

1977

Lignitic coal production credit

$0

$0

50% reduction in severance taxes.  Zero value suggests no current activity.

7.14
39-29-107(3)

1977

Oil shale tonnage/ barrels exemption

$0

$0

Applies to kerogen deposits, not fracked shale.  No activity.

7.15
39-29-107.5

1979

Impact assistance credit

$0

$0

Allow firms driving up costs from their oil and gas activities to make payments to those governments and get equal credit from state severance taxes.  Either no activity, or all severance taxes already offset by property tax credits.  Norm would be to have both fees.

 

 

Total

$558,495,000

$563,304,000

 

1/ Not available
2/ Not disclosable

Sources: 
Colorado Department of Revenue, Colorado Tax Profile and Expenditure Report 2012, January 2013. 

Doug Koplow and Cynthia Lin, A Review of Fossil Fuel Subsidies in Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Wyoming, (Cambridge, MA: Earth Track, Inc.), December 2012.  Prepared for the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

  • 1Property taxes are levied by local governments on tangible property. Severance taxes compensate governments for the permanent loss of natural resource deposits within its geographic boundaries.  In addition to crediting property tax payments, the valuation method for tangible property used in CO also provides discounts to specific sectors, including fossil fuels.

Bjorn Lomborg ran an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal a few days ago in which he concluded the real problem with energy markets is that there are too many subsidies to green energy.  Lomborg argues that people who complain about subsidies to fossil fuels are in part misguided by the considerable "misinformation" on the subject, and he aims to "debunk" key "myths" around the numbers.   While he agrees that fossil fuels shouldn't be subsidized either, his main focus is on government largesse to renewables.

As I've been working on this subject for quite a long time, I've added some commentary to his commentary ("Green energy is the real subsidy hog",WSJ, Nov. 11, 2013).  His op ed is reprinted verbatim below.  My commentary is interspersed, with the text indented and italicized.

*******************************

Green energy is the real subsidy hog

For 20 years the world has tried subsidizing green technology instead of focusing on making it more efficient. Today Spain spends about 1% of GDP throwing money at green energy such as solar and wind power. The $11 billion a year is more than Spain spends on higher education.

Perhaps a quibble, but the duration of subsidies, even to renewables, is a good bit longer than 20 years.  The longevity matters, as it is a rough proxy for how entrenched the related interests are, and of the political challenges that any reform effort faces.  Corn ethanol, if one is bold enough to call it "renewable," has been subsidized for 35 years in the US.  A handful of renewable subsidies go back even further, to the period immediately following the first energy crisis of 1973, as the US floundered around trying to address its suddenly-revealed overdependence on imported oil from hostile nations. 

But the dollars to renewables were quite small until the early 1990s, and become mere rounding errors for that time period once one removes (as I believe they should) support to corn ethanol and large scale hydro plants.  In contrast, and since Lomborg is focused on expensive support for energy globally, subsidies to oil and gas date back at least a century.  Further, since oil is a complex global market, subsidies in one country often spilled over to oil operations in multiple countries.  Multinational oil companies, for example, established complex (and quite impressive in a tax-wonk sort of way) mechanisms to use tanker subsidiaries and transfer prices to avoid much of their worldwide corporate tax burden.  Glenn Jenkins of Harvard wrote a fascinating paper reviewing tax subsidies to international oil operations in the 1960s and 1970s, including the tanker subsidiary scheme that moved profits out from high-tax end-market countries to tax havens such as Panama and Liberia.1  

This was not the only such scheme, and paring them back (they are still not gone entirely) took many years of effort by taxing authorities.  But the example provides an important reminder that the clock on subsidy-related distortions in energy markets has been running for a good deal longer than Bjorn Lomborg has been paying attention to it.  Subsidies to nuclear fission around the world highlight this as well.  From R&D to construction, accident liability, decommissioning, and long-term radioactive waste management, large government subsidies have propped up the industry since the earliest days of the civilian program in the 1950s.  Without these subsidies, it is doubtful that more than a handful of reactors would ever have been built.  Dollars (and all sorts of other currencies as well) have been thrown at these technologies for decades, often in big gobs. 

Lomborg is correct that energy efficiency has normally been short-changed in energy policies the world over (my own figures for that late 1980s found $35 in supply side subsidies for each $1 in end-use efficiency support; the numbers are hopefully a bit better now).  Perhaps this is an unfortunate side-effect of the dynamics of political economy:  supply-side resources tend to have large infrastructure, concentrated cash flows, and executives who can promise jobs for the district and funding for the re-election coffers.  In contrast, efficiency more often comes in small, dispersed batches without the political fanfare of a ribbon cutting. 

But there is another very important reason that efficiency has not been front-and-center around the world:  existing policies have consistently underpriced conventional energy resources - through subsidies to be sure; but also through large negative externalities that have long been ingnored.  This Harvard Medical School study, for example, pegged environmental and health costs of US coal alone at hundreds of billions per year.  And ignored externalities mean artificially low delivered prices for fossil fuels, and systematic underinvestment into improved efficiency and conservation.   Lomborg may disagree on the figures used by the IMF, but he should certainly agree that negative externalities are quite large and have not been properly internalized into many fuel markets.

At the end of the century, with current commitments, these Spanish efforts will have delayed the impact of global warming by roughly 61 hours, according to the estimates of Yale University's well-regarded Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model. Hundreds of billions of dollars for 61 additional hours? That's a bad deal.

Wow, 61 hours does seem a bad deal. For the billions of dollars being spent, I would think we ought to be able to stave off destruction for at least a couple of weeks, maybe even a month or two.  But would it be out of line to suggest that these figures seem so extraordinarily precise given the forces at play that perhaps this type of conclusion might not be playing to the core strengths of what the Yale model was set up to evaluate?  We've got time horizons that are decades long, interacting policies not only among many global players in the solar space, but across fuels and competing economic drivers of energy policy such as energy security and jobs.  And we've got newer technologies that quite often have discontinuous (i.e., involve tough-to-model non-linearities) and hard-to-predict development and technology dissemination paths.  In light of these factors, I'm hard-pressed to ascribe serious weighting to the 61 hour prediction.  What is likely going on is that the impact of a tiny policy is being evaluated in isolation against the inertia of a massive global system.  Not surprisingly, it doesn't move the needle much. No single policy would. 

This issue arose in the mid-1990s when the US Environmental Protection Agency ran two macro models (Decision Focus and Jorgenson/Wilcoxen) to see how removing a handful of individual subsidies to oil would affect national emissions of greenhouse gases.  The answer, for the same reason, was not much.  Though when they redid the model runs looking at a bigger list of fossil fuel subsidies (i.e., beyond the scoping problems of the EIA reports and removing a group of subsidies together rather than one or two at a time), emissions shifts from reform became more material.  Unfortunately, this exact same error was repeated in a recent assessment by the National Academy of Sciences of the US tax code and ghg emissions.  In contrast, the OECD has been assessing the impact of fossil fuel subsidy reform on emissions for well on a decade using its general equilbrium model, and has found material benefits.

Are some renewable energy policies inefficient?  Of course -- just like most of the other subsidies given.  With a feed-in tariff, the subsidy can be set too high, applied to too many kWh, or set to last for too many years.  But at least there's no payment unless power is delivered.  Goofy ideas like Senator Lindsey Graham's push to guarantee $100 billion in loans to build new nuclear reactors cost money even if the projects balloon in price, get cancelled, and never generate a single kWh.  He and others pretend that loan guarantees, no matter how big, are free;  financial economists know better. 

If Spain's renewable subsidies have been inefficient they should fix them.  If they are too expensive for their economy, they should pare them back, redirect, or eliminate.  That's part of running a competent government.  But let's not imply (as Lomborg's juxtaposition in the first paragraph of his oped does) that somehow the PV subsidies are a material reason Spain is not spending enough on higher education.  Clearly, there are many things about the Spanish economy that seem sub-optimal in attaining better lives for its citizens.  I'd put its long-standing underemployment of the country's young people (youth unemployment recently topped 56%)  far higher on the list of things having detrimental effects on the development of the country than whether they've optimized their subsidies to photovoltaic installations. 

Stepping outside the Spanish example for the moment:  the costs of solar panels have continued to decline sharply, and quite interesting financial models for deploying them have evolved as well.  They are increasingly being integrated into basic building materials, which should bring the marginal cost of the power component down still further.  If these panels are one day competitive even according to Lomborg calculations, would the Yale model somehow parse out 61 hours worth of credit for this shift to the Spanish subsidies?  I don't know whether these economic gains will actually occur any more than Lomborg does.  Yet, with production lot sizes in the many thousands for PV panels, spillover from related industries, and frequent reinvestment in production lines, I am far more hopeful that incremental innovation in the PV sector will generate significant cost and value improvements than I am about similar claims by the nuclear industry, where even in France reactor lot sizes have been too small to generate the type of learning, innovation, and economies of scale needed to bring unit costs in line.

Yet when such inefficient green subsidies are criticized, their defenders can be relied on to point out that the world subsidizes fossil fuels even more heavily. We shouldn't subsidize either. But the misinformation surrounding energy subsidies is considerable, and it helps keep the world from enacting sensible policy.

I've done my best to call out subsidy silliness whatever fuel it supports, and have never favored cutting any energy resource slack on the negative impacts of its production chain.  That said, I speak to many people representing all sorts of views on the best energy path, and there are notable distinctions in the messaging used by the different groups.  When I speak to people in the wind or solar industries ("defenders" of green subsidies from Lomborg's vantage), they are actually quite candid that what they are getting from the government are subsidies.  Not surprisingly, they believe those subsidies are justified and socially beneficial, but there is no mincing the "S" word. 

This is in sharp contrast with the oil and nuclear industries and their apologists.  Percentage depletion becomes just another way to write off investments - no matter that you are writing off more than you actually invested.  Government loan guarantees of tens or hundreds of billions of dollars for new reactors (Lindsey Graham again) are not subsidies because there is not an initial cash payment from the government.  No matter that credit enhancements are a separate product (for which one must pay) in financial markets; that they provide particularly large benefits for the most capital intensive technologies with poor construction track records such as nuclear; and that favored technologies of particular political gatekeepers are given disproportionate access to Uncle Sam's low cost credit line.  Master limited partnerships, another example, are almost entirely used by the oil and gas industry to enable publicly-traded firms to escape billions in corporate income taxes each year.  Yet they are brushed away as though it's not really a subsidy, just another way to organize a company. 

At least give all of us working on energy market transparency and subsidy reforms the courtesy of acknowledging your industry is at the trough.  Make the case on why you deserve taxpayer support, but don't pretend we're too stupid even to see it. 

So yes, Lomborg and I agree that the misinformation is considerable.  We differ on the source.  Political dynamics would suggest that the more established industries with larger cash flows (fossil, nuclear, and the farm lobby) will be the ones most engaged in lobbying activity, political donations, and cranking out information supportive of their subsidy positions.  That is the pattern I have seen.   

The Wall Street Journal's editorial page, where Lomborg has published his take on subsidies, is perhaps a case in point.  The paper has run numerous editorial pieces on subsidies to wind and ethanol.  It has run pretty much nothing on subsidies to nuclear or to fossil fuels -- the only exceptions being postings by people claiming, as Lomberg has, that the fossil fuel subsidies are small and mostly pretend figments of crazed greenie imaginations.  

Three myths about fossil-fuel subsidies are worth debunking.The first is the claim, put forth by organizations such as the Environmental Law Institute, that the U.S. subsidizes fossil fuels more heavily than green energy. Not so.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated in 2010 that fossil-fuel subsidies amounted to $4 billion a year. These include $240 million in credit for investment in Clean Coal Facilities; a tax deferral worth $980 million called excess of percentage over cost depletion; and an expense deduction on amortization of pollution-control equipment. Renewable sources received more than triple that figure, roughly $14 billion. That doesn't include $2.5 billion for nuclear energy.

Lomborg is a savvy-enough economist to know exactly what he is doing with his data framing, and it is hardly helpful to the real policy issues for him to cherry pick as he does.  Energy subsidies are a global problem that diverts massive financial flows from more useful endeavors, slows energy innovation, and contributes to environmental damage.  The policies become de facto entitlements that are increasingly difficult to remove as recipient industries and sectors of the population become more dependent on the prevailing set of transfers or special benefits, reducing the political latitude for reform.  These forces may be one explanation why in the US subsidies to wind expire every couple of years, while subsidies to oil and gas are an integrated part of the tax code that is infrequently debated and virtually never at risk of removal. 

To support his assertion that this is all about wind, solar, and biofuels, Lomborg picks a point estimate, and one in a year mid-recession and just after the big cash dollops of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (passed in 2009) put federal spending on renewables at peak or near-peak levels.  Even today, renewable numbers would likely be materially lower.  The eighty-five years of industrial development between 1910 and 1995, during which renewable subsidies (other than the mega hydro dams, a topic for a different day) were barely a blip, are silently forgotten.   

The economic distortions that matter in terms of overall energy market structure and societal responses to climate change are not the result of a funding surge in 2010, but of much longer term trends of support. In the late 1980s, for example, my own detailed analysis identified more than $8 of federal support to conventional fuels (fossil, nuclear, and large scale hydro) for each $1 going to renewables and efficiency, an indication of the skewness of these earlier eras.  Using a longer-term trend line provides a more accurate framing of government subsidies and also mitigates some of the lumpiness that accrues to one fuel or another at different periods of time. 

It is also important to note that Lomborg is relying entirely on subsidy estimates produced by the EIA, though EIA's subsidy reviews unfortunately have an array of scoping and estimation problems.  This is an issue I have tracked in a fair bit of detail over the years (see a full discussion in this paper);  and that EIA at least partly acknowledged in its most recent subsidy review (though not all of their explanations ring true).  It is notable that not only do EIA's figures for total subsidies rise sharply when the topic is evaluated more systematically, but the relative support across fuels shifts dramatically as well.

Actual spending skews even more toward green energy than it seems. Since wind turbines and other renewable sources produce much less energy than fossil fuels, the U.S. is paying more for less. Coal-powered electricity is subsidized at about 5% of one cent for every kilowatt-hour produced, while wind power gets about a nickel per kwh. For solar power, it costs the taxpayer 77 cents per kwh.

Just as one can't properly measure a company's strength and prospects based on a single financial metric, the efficacy of energy subsidy policies - indeed of most government policies - must be evaluated with a mix of metrics as well. Thus, it is useful to supplement gross dollars of subsidy for a particular fuel with other metrics, as Lomborg has done.  This includes not only subsidy intensity (subsidy/unit energy produced), but other potential metrics of interest such as subsidy per mt of CO2-equivalent avoided or the subsidy per job-year created (raw jobs rather than job-years are a far less accurate measure of longer-term benefits).  The most relevant metrics will depend on the structure of the market being evaluated and the political justifications on which a subsidy program is being proposed.    

In his article, Lomborg chooses to emphasize primarily subsidy per kWh of energy produced.  It is a useful rubric, but only within the proper context.  Applying it to subsidies supporting basic energy R&D would not be useful, for example, since commercial production from that research would not be expected until many, many years later.  Time period issues can remain even for resources further along into commercial production, though still in the earlier period of infrastructure scale up.  In these situations, the base over which early subsidies are being spread may still be small, generating very large subsidy intensity metrics.  Further, distributed power resources may displace some power transport or distribution investments; where this occurs it is important that subsidies be compared across fuels on a similar basis that takes this savings into account.  The point at which a resource moves from one category to another is not a precise one, but the issue is relevant for how much weight to put on the reported subsidy intensity figures when assessing whether spending has been productive or not.  That said, even with emerging technologies far from commercialization, the subsidy metrics can help identify more cost-efficient mechanisms to achieve the same endpoints.  This is particularly true where expensive energy resources are being touted as the best or only solution to a problem for which there are actually many potential solutions -- reducing greenhouse gases for example.  If reductions in carbon are available at a few dollars per mt abated, the government shouldn't be earmarking subsidies to favored industries that cost a few hundred dollars per mt.

The subsidy intensity figures in Lomborg's op-ed suffer most from his use of a peak-year point estimate, which exacerbates the bias from using the peak year in his gross subsidy figures.  This is because both parts of the intensity fraction are distorted:  the denominator (kWh generated) remains small due to the scale-up period of the technology while the numerator ($ of subsidy) surges through selection of peak-year support. 

Finally, if the subsidy input data is inaccurate, incomplete, or otherwise biased (as the EIA figures are), not only will the absolute subsidy intensity values be wrong, but their relative values will also be skewed. 

Critics of fossil-fuel subsidies, such as climate scientist Jim Hansen, also suggest that the immense size of global subsidies is evidence of the power over governments wielded by fossil-fuel companies and climate-change skeptics. Global fossil-fuel subsidies do exceed those for renewables in raw dollars-$523 billion to $88 billion, according to the International Energy Agency. But the disparity is reversed when proportion is taken into account. Fossil fuels make up more than 80% of global energy, while modern green energy accounts for about 5%. This means that renewables still receive three times as much money per energy unit.

But much more important, the critics ignore that these fossil-fuel subsidies are almost exclusive to non-Western countries.

There are some subsidy estimation methodology issues here that are relevant to addressing Lomborg's conclusions.   IEA measures subsidies in many countries at once using the "price gap" method.  The approach evaluates variation between transport-adjusted domestic prices and a world reference price for the same fuel, an efficient mechanism and a necessary simplification given the scope of geography to be evaluated by the IEA's relatively small staff.  The metric primarily captures subsidies to consumers, as subsidies to producers are often absorbed in other ways (higher economic rents to resource owners, higher returns to producers, or simply allowing an inefficient producer to continue producing at particular prevailing world price levels rather than shutting down).  This "leakage" on the producer side means that the many fiscal supports don't show up as price disparities.  For more than you probably ever wanted to know about the price gap approach, see this paper. 

To be clear:  consumer subsidies are certainly more common in non-Western countries as Lomborg notes.  However, these countries also provide a slew of subsidies to fuel producers that don't get captured by IEA's data either.  Further, Lomborg's conclusion that subsidies by Western countries don't matter is simply wrong.  In fact, although Western countries are not trying to systematically hold domestic fuel prices below world reference prices as those topping the IEA fossil fuel subsidy tally do, they nonetheless have thousands of subsidies to fossil fuel producers that flow not only through their federal system, but through state, provincial, and municipal administrations as well.  And there are also consumer subsidies in the West, though of a different form than what one sees in Iran or Saudi Arabia.  Most often, these come via generous exemptions for fuels from standard sales and use taxes.  These exemptions depress the economic return on investments in efficiency and conservation while stripping state Treasuries of hundreds of millions of dollars in revenues each.   

There has never been anything close to a full inventory of energy subsidies around the world.  The OECD has begun building an inventory of producer subsidies within its member countries, though much remains to be done.  Sub-national coverage barely exists, and coverage of producer subsidies in developing countries is also quite weak.  Major gaps in the identification of credit supports to energy extraction and infrastructure are also common globally.  Having looked in detail at many of the data sources on which Lomberg relies, I would suggest that his conclusions on the relative levels of support across fuels are premature, and become even more so were one to include negative externalities of energy rather than just fiscal subsidies. 

Twelve such nations account for 75% of the world's fossil-fuel subsidies. Iran tops the list with $82 billion a year, followed by Saudi Arabia at $61 billion. Russia, India and China spend between $30 billion and $40 billion, and Venezuela, Egypt, Iran, U.A.E., Indonesia, Mexico and Algeria make up the rest.

These subsidies have nothing to do with cozying up to oil companies or indulging global-warming skeptics. The spending is a way for governments to buy political stability: In Venezuela, gas sells at 5.8 cents a gallon, costing the government $22 billion a year, more than twice what is spent on health care.

Lomborg oversimplies here, though clearly fuel pricing in Venezuela makes no rational sense.  The consumer subsidies are certainly partly about buying stability - a modern day form of bread and circuses.  But it is also true that big national oil companies can be strong advocates for entrenched leaders and their parties; and that the patronage associated with the firms and their cash flows is a powerful drug that generates all sorts of perverse outcomes in the politics and economics of the affected countries.  The subsidies can also get intertwined with sometimes misguided development dreams.  Using inexpensive power inputs to finance (over) expansion of irrigation in India, or to build "higher value" petrochemicals production, perhaps without making sure the infrastructure was globally competitive even were it to pay world prices on the fossil fuel feedstocks.  Real estate infrastructure can also suffer, as underpricing of heating, cooling, and lighting services lead developers to put up long-lived structures without appropriate investments into the energy efficiency of the building systems and envelope.   

Subsidies on the producer side in many of these countries are also endemic, though often much more difficult to track:  favorable terms on extraction, tax breaks, inexpensive government-provided capital or insurance.  And who gets them and how much absolutely does involve some degree of cozying up to the power brokers.

A third myth is propagated by a recent International Monetary Fund report, "Energy Subsidy Reform-Lessons and Implications." The organization announced in March that it had discovered an extra $1.4 trillion in fossil-fuel subsidies that everyone else overlooked. Of that figure, the report claims, $700 billion comes from the developed world.

U.S. gasoline and diesel alone make up about half of the IMF's $700 billion in alleged subsidies. Gasoline and diesel deserve more taxation, the report says, so the IMF counts taxes that were not levied as "subsidies." Thus air pollution merits a 34-cents-per-gallon tax, according to the IMF models, while traffic accidents and congestion should add about $1 per gallon.

There are a few issues here.  First, I hope that Lomborg is upset with the IMF methodology or values, and is not viewing any recognition of energy-related external costs as a "myth" that needs "debunking".  The valuation of externalities is often contentious though, and addressing the fiscal subsidies alone is often sufficient to alter the direction of energy markets in useful ways.  Thus, it is helpful to segregate the two values, and to assess reform impacts both on fiscal subsidies alone, and fiscal plus externalities as a separate model run.

That said, the basic idea that exemptions for energy fuels and services from basic levels of taxation applied to other good and services are unwarranted and should be viewed as subsidies is a sound one.  This is a significant subsidy both in countries with VAT (as energy often receives lower rates) and at the state level here in the US (where exemptions from sales and use taxes are common for fuel). 

According to the IMF, the U.S. also should have a 17% value-added tax like other countries, at about 80 cents per gallon. The combined $350 billion such taxes allegedly would raise gets spun as a subsidy.

Let's ignore the question of whether or not the US should have some national VAT imputed, as even within our existing tax framework there are subsidies of import that should be fixed.  For example, federal motor fuel taxes are used almost exclusively to fund highway construction and maintenance.  And exemptions or reductions from those taxes for particular classes of users results in literal free riders.  Favored classes have included vehicles using ethanol (until the excise tax exemption was replaced with a tax credit), and to a lesser degree electric or hybrid vehicles that have decoupled the connection between conventional fuel consumption and highway usage.  There are also large cross-subsidies to heavy trucks from other classes of users, as the heavier vehicles cause a disproportionate share of road damage.  And, all users underpay highway costs by close to $100 billion per year.  The vast majority of this undercharge (less the tiny fraction of vehicle miles not propelled by petrol) benefits oil.

While the US doesn't have a VAT, as already noted we do have sales and use taxes on consumption in most states.  And it is certainly true that if fuel excise taxes are earmarked at the state level to (mostly) pay for roads, and all sorts of other goods and services pay the sales tax, the absence of a sales tax on gasoline or diesel is properly viewed as a subsidy.  So too for commercial and residential consumption of fuels that are mostly exempt from state sales tax across the country - a policy that is both enormously costly in the states I've looked at, and certainly marginalizes activities that make the economy more energy-efficient.

The assumptions behind the IMF's math have some problems. The organization assumes a social price of carbon dioxide at five times what Europe currently charges. The air-pollution damages are upward of 10 times higher than the European Union estimates. And what do traffic accidents have to do with gasoline subsidies?

I agree with Lomborg on the issue of traffic accidents.  But his critique of the value assumptions for the social cost of carbon is a bit dicier, given the malfunctioning European carbon market.  Further, just as market impacts are better evaluated with a multi-year subsidy average than a point estimate, integration of external costs should also be done with longer-term estimates, rather than using only the spot price at a particular point in time.

Finally, the IMF effectively ignores the 49.5 cents per gallon in gasoline taxes the U.S. consumer actually pays. The models cancel out this tax, inexplicably, with an "international shipping cost." But even if you accept the IMF's estimated pollution costs and the European-style VAT, the total tax the IMF says goes uncollected comes to only about 44 cents per gallon-or less than the actual U.S. tax of 49.5 cents per gallon. The real under-taxation is zero. The $350 billion is a figment of the IMF's balance sheet.

The baseline taxation of energy should (1) compensate public sector owners for the sale (severance) of valuable energy resources; (2) recover public sector costs associated with the public provision of energy-related services (such as regulatory oversight, site cleanup, excess road repairs); (3) equal the baseline tax on other commodities (so fuel taxes actually contribute to general revenues rather than just paying for the excess costs they put on the system); and (4) charge an appropriate levy for negative externalities associated with production and use of the resource. This is in addition to removing obvious subsidies to production or consumption for a particular fuel.  Many assessments of energy taxation, including Lomborg's, fail to incorporate appropriate measures for baseline levels.  As noted above, for example, we know that the US federal tax on motor fuels doesn't even cover the related infrastructure.  At the state level, tax exemptions for fuels are rife; and excise and severance taxes often earmarked to fund the special problems or costs that extractive operations create for the state (resulting in little or no net contributions to general state spending).  Lomborg may be correct in some of his criticisms of IMF assumptions, but he is clearly wrong in his conclusion that "the real under-taxation is zero." 

Inaccurate information of this sort is needlessly misinforming public policy. I'm in favor of ending global fossil-fuel subsidies-and green-energy subsidies. Subsidizing first-generation, inefficient green energy might make well-off people feel good about themselves, but it won't transform the energy market.

Lomborg has a large megaphone, and cachet with many fiscal conservatives and green energy skeptics.  If he really is in favor of ending global fossil-fuel subsidies, I would love to see him actually work in that direction.  Too often when people say they are in favor of ending subsidies to both fossil fuels and green energy, what they really mean is that they want to define away the baseline subsidies to fossil as not really being subsidies; and then strip the subsidies to renewables and call the playing field level. 

Green-energy initiatives must focus on innovations, making new generations of technology work better and cost less. This will eventually power the world in a cleaner and cheaper way than fossil fuels. That effort isn't aided by the perpetuation of myths.

Dr. Lomborg, director of the Copenhagen Consensus Center, is the author of "How Much Have Global Problems Cost the World? A Scoreboard from 1900 to 2050" (Cambridge, 2013).

 

 

  • 1"By 1971 tankers represented the third largest type of asset held by American companies having investments in the petroleum industry abroad. Tankers are a logical investment from the point of view of an integrated petroleum company desirous to control, through ownership, the chief international means of transport for its products. But American companies own oil tankers for two additional reasons. First, through the internal pricing of freight rates, income from either the producing of consuming country can be transferred to their tanker affiliates. Secondly, the United States does not for taxation purposes, require income gained by Controlled Foreign Corporations that are tanker subsidiaries to be included in taxable income of the year in which it was earned. This provision differs from the normal treatment of Controlled Foreign Corporations whose income is gained from services performed for a related corporation outside its country of origin. These tanker subsidiaries can reside in a foreign country with a very low tax rate ('tax havens') without having their earnings included in U.S. taxable income, whereas the normal tax treatment of a subsidiary of this type would include a pro rata share in taxable income. Thus, tanker subsidiaries retain the advantage of deferral. Liberia and Panama are the corporate locations of a considerable number of the tanker subsidiaries. In 1968 Liberia had an effective income tax rate of approximately 3 percent of income, while Panama’s income tax rate was 0.4 percent. From these locations the tanker subsidiaries of petroleum companies can choose whether to repatriate dividends to their corporate parents, using the excess tax credits from the producing countries to offset U.S. taxes due, or to use these funds to make loans to other foreign affiliates of the parent corporation. Through the freight and interest charges a significant portion of the total income of the international operations of a petroleum corporation can be transferred to the tanker subsidiaries incorporated in tax haven countries. This provides a method of transferring income from the high tax consuming areas to areas of low marginal effective tax rates, similar in effect to the transfer achieve by the internal pricing of crude oil (mentioned above)." See Glenn Jenkins, "United States Taxation and the Incentive to Develop Foreign Primary Energy Sources," in Gerard Brannon, ed., Studies in Energy Tax Policy. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Co., 1975, pp. 203-245.

Time to change the game: Fossil fuel subsidies and climate

This report documents the scale of fossil fuel subsidies and sets out a practical agenda for their elimination in the context of the global goal of tackling climate change. It spells out the real costs of fossil fuel subsidies within the top developed-country emitters (the E11), the G20, and more broadly across developing countries, and outlines ways to achieve their global phase-out by 2025.

If a company or an industry is going to get subsidized, there are good ways and there are better ways for it to happen if one is sitting in the corporate suite.  Among the best is to receive big subsidies that, while not flowing to your competitors, arrive in a form that nobody seems to notice.  The benefits of this structure are clear:  while the recipient gets a large slug of financial support, because few people see or understand the largesse, the political cost to both obtain and retain the subsidy is relatively low.  Master Limited Partnerships, the subject of Earth Track's most recent report Too Big to Ignore: Subsidies to Fossil Fuel Master Limited Partnerships, prepared for Oil Change International, fit the bill here perfectly:

MLP subsidies_cover

  • They are big.  Not only can beneficiary companies with hundreds of billions of dollars in market cap entirely escape corporate income taxes on profits earned from eligible activities, but they can also defer for many years any tax payments on the gobs of cash they distribute out to their owners.   
  • They are mostly hidden.  Energy subsidy studies documenting tax breaks conducted in recent years by the US Department of Energy, the Congressional Budget Office, the US Treasury, and the Government Accountability Office have either not mentioned MLP subsidies at all, or done so only in passing with no related numerical estimate.  The Congressional Research Service did mention the tax break, but did not link it to energy.  Only the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) both linked the tax break to energy and included an estimated revenue loss figure.  Unfortunately, JCT's first estimates came only in 2008, though fossil fuel MLPs were already surging in earlier years.        
  • They are selective.  Because most industries can't partake in this little game, the tax exemption for MLPs generates an especially big market boost to oil and gas over other energy options.  Nearly every other industry lost their ability to form tax-favored publicly-traded partnerships like MLPs in 1987, more than a quarter-century ago.  The reason?  Congress was afraid corporate income tax revenues would be gutted.  Since that time, fossil fuels have increasingly dominated this tax break, comprising well more than 75% of the sector by 2012. 
  • They have (until this point) little political risk.  Fossil fuel MLPs continue to grow very quickly, and, unlike common and highly visible subsidies to wind and solar, MLP tax breaks never expire.

Selective Subsidies That Work Counter to National Fiscal and Environmental Goals

  • MLP tax expenditures are part of a broader set of government subsidies that continue to underwrite activities contributing to climate change. These policies not only have large fiscal costs, but also work counter to the country's environmental goals and our national interest.
  • Fossil fuel MLPs are growing quickly. The market capitalization of fossil fuel MLPs reached an estimated $385 billion by the end of March 2013, up from less than $14 billion in 2000. Related tax subsidies have been as high as $4 billion annually in recent years at the federal level alone.  Because the tax benefits from MLPs also ripple through state income tax codes, the combined state and federal MLP subsidies would be even higher.  
  • Fossil fuel activities continue to dominate MLPs, both in number of firms and share of total market capitalization. As of the end of last year, 77 percent of MLPs were in the oil, gas, and coal sectors based on data collected by the National Association of Publicly Traded Partnerships (NAPTP), the main industry trade association. Firms in the fossil fuel sectors comprised 79 percent of total MLP market capitalization, though this figure is likely a bit low. Firms classified in other sectors also include some oil and gas-related businesses, including fracking sand and fossil fuel investments held by publicly-traded private equity firms such as Blackstone.

MLP Subsidies to Fossil Fuels:  Underestimated and Ignored for Too Long

  • Government estimates of tax expenditures from energy-related MLPs are too low. Tax expenditures related to MLPs have been understated in recent years, and appear to be growing rapidly. Using a variety of estimation approaches, we estimate that tax preferences for fossil fuel MLPs cost the Treasury as much as $13 billion over the 2009-12 period, more than six times the official estimates.  
  • MLP tax breaks are among the largest subsidies to fossil fuels. Although most government reviews of energy subsidies have not even included MLP-related tax expenditures, our estimates suggest this subsidy is among the top five largest fiscal subsidies to the fossil fuel sector and the largest single tax break to the sector.
  • Growing share of production cycle for oil, gas, and coal can be organized as a tax-favored MLP - indicative that revenue losses will continue to grow. Financial innovation and IRS private letter rulings have expanded the fossil fuel market segments able to legally and successfully operate as tax-favored MLPs. Recent innovations have even established a precedent by which MLPs have successfully acquired taxable corporations, taking them off the corporate tax role in the process.

MLPs for All?  Providing Matching Tax Breaks to Renewables May Not be a Panacea

Though supported by many environmental groups, recent legislation introduced to expand MLP-eligibility to a range of new energy technologies may not be the panacea it is widely believed to be by supporters.  Further, the legislation is currently worded to include a range of energy technologies such as waste-to-energy, landfill gas, coal-to-liquids, and biomass that have a decidedly mixed environmental profile.

  • Even in well-established market segments, there is a large overhang of fossil fuel assets poised to exit the corporate income tax system through conversion to MLPs. Less than 20 percent of total assets in the refiners, exploration and production, oil services, and coal sectors are presently held in a tax-favored MLP format (see Table). Even in the MLP-intensive midstream segment of the oil and gas market, conventional (taxable) corporate forms continue to own more than half of the assets. In all of these sectors, there is a huge pool of assets that multiple investment firms anticipate will convert to MLPs in coming years.
  • Proposed expansion of MLP eligibility to renewables risks disproportionate benefits flowing instead to the fossil fuel sector. Current efforts to expand MLP treatment to renewables (The Master Limited Partnerships Parity Act) may entrench existing subsidy recipients.  The expansion will reduce the likelihood that MLP's tax-exempt treatment will be ended for fossil fuel producers, allowing the rapid growth of tax-exempt fossil fuel MLPs to continue unchecked. This legislation also would open MLP-eligibility to power generation for the first time, creating risks that this treatment will be extended from the current proposed set of recipients (biomass, solar, wind, geothermal) to all forms of power generation in coming years. This would disadvantage energy conservation, offset hoped for gains from the expansion in renewable sectors, and trigger very large tax losses to Treasury.

MLP Subsidy Termination a More Logical Path than Further Expansion

The MLP loophole should be closed; MLPs should be taxed as conventional corporations, not extended to new uses. This strategy, continuing what the United States started in 1986, would eliminate large and growing subsidies to fossil fuels.  Canada also successfully ended tax-favored treatment of an equivalent corporate structure in 2006.  In both cases, the affected industries did not wither and die; they adapted and moved on.  This newest crop of tax-favored fossil fuel firms will do the same.

A Guidebook to Fossil-Fuel Subsidy Reform for Policy-Makers in Southeast Asia

There is no one-size-fits-all strategy for fossil-fuel subsidy reform-but there are a set of planning stages that are generic, along with many common issues, challenges and potential solutions. The Global Subsidies Initiative (GSI) of the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) has published a guidebook on how governments can formulate an effective reform strategy that will fit their individual objectives and circumstances. It is aimed at policy-makers in Southeast Asia, but much of its guidance could apply to any region.

Inventory of Estimated Budgetary Support and Tax Expenditures for Fossil Fuels 2013

The Inventory Of Estimated Budgetary Support and Tax Expenditure for Fossil Fuels 2013 collects details on more than 550 fossil fuel support measures in the 34 OECD member countries, including many provided by state and provincial governments. The report also highlights progress made and the benefits identified by a number of OECD countries in reforming support to fossil fuels in recent years. It updates an earlier report released in 2011.

A Review of Fossil Fuel Subsidies in Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Wyoming

Although data on fossil fuel subsidies around the world have been growing, most of this information focuses on national level policies.  The thousands of subsidies at the state, provincial or local levels are largely untracked -- with little visibility either in the United States or in most other countries of the world. 

Earth Track is pleased to release A Review of Fossil Fuel Subsidies in Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Wyoming.  The report documents hundreds of subsidies to established fossil fuel industries and fossil fuel consumers in five U.S. states.  Many of these policies have contributed to environmental damage, energy market distortions, and fiscal shortfalls.

Political power drives state subsidies to fossil fuels

The United States news cycle as of late has been focused on the pending "fiscal cliff," a combination of automatic spending cuts and tax increases that put at risk the country's emergence from recession.  In an effort to flag ways to safely cut the US' burgeoning deficit, an unwieldy array of special tax breaks, often the result of political deals over many decades, have finally gotten some attention. 

state subsidies report coverYet the very same political drivers that have led to subsidizing powerful industries at the federal level have flourished at the state level as well.  And in many states, among the most powerful industries are those involved with coal, oil, and natural gas.

These subsidies have come through the operation of the state tax code to be sure, but also through every other available mechanism of government market intervention -- a list that includes subsidized credit and insurance, infrastructure provision, unfunded oversight, direct grants, and below-market resource sales.   And, just as these other types of support have received insufficient attention in federal fiscal cliff discussions, they are too often ignored at the state level as well.

This report is a first pass at inventorying the subsidies.  We have no illusion that we have captured everything.  But we hope that others will continue to build on this inventory so that the full scale of state-level support for the fossil fuel sector will gradually become visible.

Even based on the subset of policies we have captured, it is clear that these programs have contributed to the fiscal turmoil in which so many state governments now find themselves, and to significant environmental degradation as well.


Filling in subsidy data gaps at the sub-national level

Although data on fossil fuel subsidies around the world have been growing, most of this information focuses on national level policies.  The thousands of subsidies at the state, provincial or local levels are largely untracked -- with little systematic documentation either in the United States or in most other countries of the world. 

These gaps are unfortunate:  in the aggregate, sub-national subsidies transfer billions of dollars per year to fossil fuel industries just like their federal counter-parts.  They are additive to federal supports, further distorting the economics of specific projects and investment incentives across energy options.  This review also illustrates that not only are subsidies purposefully targeted to oil, gas or coal large, but that the fossil energy sector captures a significant share of more general state incentive programs as well.    

There is a great deal of money at play.  The Tax Exemption Budget for the US state of Louisiana, for example, contains a dizzying array of exemptions, exclusions and reductions that, all told, manage to forego three quarters of the state's corporate income tax revenue, more than half of its sales tax revenue, and nearly one-third of its severance tax revenue.  Severance tax breaks in Louisiana were worth more than $350 million in 2010, nearly all benefiting the fossil fuel sector.  Colorado has so many exemptions and offsets to severance taxes that only five of the more than 30 oil-producing counties in the state paid any net severance taxes on oil and natural gas, according to past reviews. 

In Kentucky, public spending on coal haul roads comprised one of the state's largest subsidies to the coal sector in years past.  Yet, the spending is poorly documented, a common situation with spending on energy-related infrastructure across the states evaluated. 

Fossil fuel exemptions from state sales and motor fuel taxes are also frequent, and result in significant revenue losses to state Treasuries.  Yet, in many of these situations, blanket exemptions don't make sense and should be narrowed or eliminated.


Reducing market distortions:  high value targets for state fossil fuel subsidy reform

The patterns in fossil fuel subsidies across states offered a number of high value areas for reform.  Some of these are highlighted below:

1)  There is no excuse for not tracking your subsidies.  There are only a handful of states in the entire country that have no formal tax expenditure budget at all, but two of them (Colorado and Wyoming) were in our sample.  None of the states evaluated had centralized public reporting of the many different programs to provide credit subsidies to private activities and businesses.  Further, clear and consistent reporting on energy-related oversight and maintenance by governmental agencies and how it is funded was also largely missing.  In all of these areas, small improvements in reporting would pay large dividends to taxpayers.

2)  Don't ignore "general" subsidies when looking at subsidies to fossil fuels.  Subsidies flow to power.  Not always, not completely.  But often and mostly.  Fossil fuel industries are powerful, and they tap into any source of subsidy they can.  The review of subsidies to oil and gas in Louisiana illustrates this quite point well, with substantial portions of some of the "general" subsidies flowing to fossil fuel beneficiaries.

Subsidies flow to power.  Not always, not completely.  But often and mostly.

3)  Energy is a product, and should not be exempt from general state and local sales and use taxes.  This common exemption costs state Treasuries hundreds of millions of dollars per year, but is difficult to justify for most recipients.  Concerns about energy poverty are real, since energy is a life-sustaining good.  However, ensuring the poor have reasonable access to energy services is already a central part of utility regulation across the country and thus can be separated from the issue of energy taxation.  Lifeline rates, energy assistance programs, or other similar tools are well established to ensure the poor stay warm in cold climes and cool in warm ones.   Particularly given the negative externalities associated with most fuel use, there is no justification for blanket tax exemptions for fuel.

4)  Paying for the roads.  Resource-intensive states do a poor job tracking extra construction and maintenance costs triggered by the heavier vehicles and more frequent traffic that routinely accompanies fossil fuel extractive activities.  This data needs to improve, with costs pushed back onto the industries that trigger the costs rather than buried in state or local government road budgets. 

Similarly, most states use motor fuel excise taxes to pay for transport-infrastructure (primarily roads).  Yet, exemptions for many user classes that do use the roads (e.g., government vehicles) are common.  In other cases, the states exempt forms of transport such as rail, boats, or aviation from fuel taxes entirely because they do not use roads.  But where governments are also spending money on rail, water, or air infrastructure or oversight, different earmarking might be prudent, but full tax exclusion is not.  These types of cross-subsidies are fiscally and environmentally damaging.

5)  Subsidizing favored extraction activities needs a rethink.  States routinely subsidize forms of energy they produce domestically or that come from lower productivity mines or wells.  Some of these subsidies provide incentives to boost production or consumption of higher polluting fuels such as lignite or high sulpher coal. The policies are focused on protecting employment and extraction levels.  They implicitly downplay the impact of the subsidies on environmental quality or on the ability of other fuels or energy services to compete.   Tax exemptions for fossil fuels consumed or lost during the extraction process are also common. 

In all of these situations, a rethink is needed.  Fossil fuels in lower productivity wells are one type of marginal energy resource, but they are not the only one.  Subsidies should not put higher cost fossil fuels at a competitive advantage to other, often cleaner, substitutes.  

Conventional wisdom on propping up extractive industries as productivity declines is equally problematic.  Old wells are sometimes reopened as prices rise or technology improves, regardless of the state subsidies for doing so.  Further, the declining returns on old wells as costs rise and volumes drop really isn't that different structurally from what happens in many other businesses as technology and equipment ages, and new alternatives come to the fore.  Yet we don't see the tax code littered with subsidies to keep other declining productivity businesses going in the face of new competitors.  Government policy should be neutral with respect to aging industries rather than favoring polluting fossil fuels.


Summary

State subsidies to fossil fuels have been neglected for too long.  They are wide ranging, large, and often exacerbate environmental harm while also acting as a competitive impediment to emerging energy resources and improved energy efficiency to compete on an equal footing.  By inventorying these subsidies in five states, we hope to start a conversation on how to get rid of many of them, and to provide a foundation on which others can continue to expand the subsidy knowledge base.

 

Further reading

Readers interested in sub-national subsidies may also find the following three resources of value:

1)  OECD's inventory of fossil fuel subsidies.  OECD partially funded our work, and a some elements of this review will be included in their updated installment of fossil fuel subsidies within OECD countries.  Their most recent subsidy data can be accessed here.  The updated printed report is slated for publication in January 2013. 

2)  Good Jobs First Subsidy Tracker database.  This is the most extensive database I'm aware of covering a wide variety of state-level subsidies.  The coverage on grants and tax breaks is strong and growing.  But weaknesses in state reporting on other subsidy instruments reduce the ability of Good Jobs First to comprehensively track some of the other types of support.  Thus, coverage of credit and insurance subsidies, below-market sales of publicly-owned minerals, or state-provided goods or services in the energy sector is more spotty.  The values in the database can be viewed as a lower-bound estimate for total subsidies in a state.

3)  United States of Subsidies database from the New York Times.  Supplements information from the Good Jobs First database with additional sources, and provides a nice interface to facilitate tabulations of state-level subsidies to specific companies.  Not fossil-fuel specific.